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US Perspectives - US Equities November 2024 Outlook

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US Perspectives - US Equities November 2024 Outlook

Nov 27, 2024

  • According to FactSet, through 22nd November, 95 per cent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2024 earnings to date. Of these companies, 75 per cent have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 77 per cent but equal to the 10-year average of 75 per cent. Looking ahead, analysts expect yoy earnings growth rates at 12.0 per cent, 12.7 per cent, and 12.1 per cent for Q4 2024, Q1 2025, and Q2 2025, respectively. For CY 2024, analysts are calling for yoy earnings growth of 9.4 per cent. For CY 2025, analysts are predicting yoy earnings growth of 15.0 per cent
  • Earnings for the S&P 500 ex-Magnificent 7 are forecast to expand next year. According to Bloomberg, as of 22nd November, earnings are forecast to grow 10 per cent yoy in Q1 2025, while in Q4 2025, earnings are projected to grow 15 per cent yoy. The index shows a clear upward trend over time, signaling broadening earnings recovery and potentially stronger market broadening
  • While valuations have expanded, they are nowhere near all-time highs and given the strength in future earnings outlook, companies look reasonably valued
  • The Magnificent seven will continue to lead technological change, but we look for broader market participation as the “Forgotten 493” are expected to post better earnings well into 2025. Moreover, the technology revolution is just beginning, which should continue to improve productivity and earnings. The technology and growth imperatives are clear and companies that participate will benefit
  • As of 24th November, the S&P 500 is up in excess of 20 per cent in 2024. Last year, the S&P 500 saw gains above 20 per cent as well. Historically, when we have seen two consecutive years of 20 per cent or more returns, 75 per cent of the time the S&P 500 has risen in the third year with an average return of 12.3 per cent.
  • With the 2024 US Presidential Election now over and Donald Trump becoming the 47th President, investors can now shift their focus towards the policies of the new administration. The key Trump policy priorities, despite some potential risks, offer significant growth opportunities. Deregulation and potential tax cuts are expected to spur business investment, improve productivity, and provide a boost to economic growth. In addition, the combination of deregulation, lower interest rates, lower tax rates, and above-trend earnings growth could result in an increase in M&A next year
  • By fostering investor confidence and unleashing “animal spirits,” these policies may position the US economy to outperform its global peers. As investors recalibrate to a new political reality in the US, and policy announcements can create some temporary volatility, we suggest diversifying investments to navigate those potential sources of volatility. US equities remain our preferred overweight globally, and the fundamentals look quite attractive as we head into a new year

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