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Top Questions from our Clients - December 2024

Top Questions from our Clients
Equities
Bonds
Top Questions
US
Gold

Top Questions from our Clients - December 2024

Nov 29, 2024

  • Question 1: How will the new US administration’s policies impact domestic risks and opportunities? The proposed tax cuts for individuals and corporates can stimulate economic growth. But if this growth is not able to offset the revenue loss, it can widen the fiscal deficit, bringing back the topics around the debt ceiling and fiscal strain. However, Mr Trump has committed to meaningfully cutting spending. Protectionist trade policies can potentially result in rising labour and production costs, which can be inflationary, though some of this will be eased by the strong USD and productivity gains thanks to automation. So, despite some potential risks, tax cuts, deregulation and strong innovation should support earnings upgrades for US stocks. Hence, US equities remain our biggest overweight, while USD bonds could see more volatility but provide attractive income
  • Question 2: What is our outlook on gold? The rapid US election result, rising USD and reduced market expectations for Fed cuts have caused some short-term weakness for gold. But from a medium-term perspective, we believe the central bank buying will remain a key supportive factor. Since 2022, China and Russia have been the major buyers as they diversify away from USD, and this is a structural shift away from bond yields to diversification benefits being the principal driver of gold prices. Gold is also attracting investors in today’s higher inflation environment, and investors’ concerns that trade tariffs could keep inflation somewhat stickier than previously thought. With geopolitical tensions still around, we maintain our positive view on gold as a hedge for any uncertainties
  • Question 3: With likely US tariffs and other policy changes, which countries should we avoid? We expect the new US administration to adopt an America-first stance with a trade protectionist view. While a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports has been suggested, and an increase of 10 per cent for Chinese imports, the impact of these measures depends on their approval, the scope and the timing. We hold a neutral view on Chinese stocks as it faces risk of higher tariffs; monetary and fiscal stimulus can counter this headwind, but we see limited scope for accelerating earnings or growth. We continue to target earnings endurance and diversify our equity exposure across regions. Beyond our preference for US equities, we have a mild overweight on Japan, India, and the UK, which are less sensitive to trade risks. We have recently downgraded our view on Germany, South Korea and Mexico, partly to reflect sensitivity to trade tensions and partly due to other local factors
  • Question 4: Are we still positive on Indian equities, despite their recent weak performance? Indian equities' recent sharp pullback can be attributed to weak EM market sentiment, USD strength, a disappointing earnings season, and inflows into China following the stimulus announcement from Beijing. However, from a medium-term perspective, we maintain our mild overweight stance, as (1) we believe the still robust economic growth, improving rural consumption and supportive government policies should help Indian equities deliver mid-teens earnings growth next year. (2) lower-than-expected Chinese stimulus, combined with the heightened risk of US trade tariffs, can potentially reverse the outflows as investors may return from China to India, (3) India faces relatively less US tariff risk within EM markets. In India, we retain our preference for Financials and Industrials, and like large-caps over mid- and small-caps
  • Question 5: What is our outlook for Chinese equities? The recent fiscal support announcements from China have failed to impress the markets. Also, uncertainties remain over recent mixed Chinese economic data and looming trade tensions and potential tariff hikes after Mr Trump’s decisive victory. A 60 per cent tariff on all Chinese import products was initially the plan, but the latest iteration suggests a 10 per cent addition to existing tariffs. While we await more clarity on the trade policy and timeline of potential tariff policy changes, we believe that a sustained fundamental re-rating of the China equity market will require more significant direct central government support for the property sector and more forceful demand-side stimulus to boost consumer confidence. Hence, we stay neutral on Chinese equities and like the internet and resilient consumer leaders
  • Question 6: Amid tight credit spreads and clouded interest rate outlook, what is our view on bonds? As credit spreads are relatively tight and US policies from the new administration may create fluctuations in the Fed rate expectations, we take a neutral and active stance on most parts of the credit spectrum. However, we believe real yields are elevated, and central banks should continue to cut rates. So, high quality bonds still play a critical role as a good source of income and diversification. We seek to replace falling cash rates with multi-asset and active fixed income strategies and look for opportunities through our “Income Through Active Credit Selection” investment theme

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