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Top Questions from our Clients - November 2024

Top Questions from our Clients
Equities
Earnings
US ELECTIONS
Top Questions
Fed

Top Questions from our Clients - November 2024

Oct 30, 2024

  • Question 1: Do we see a risk of no landing causing the Fed to ease less aggressively? Stronger-than-expected US data have caused markets to worry that the Fed could slow rate cuts, pushing up bond yields. But the Fed would only slow if inflation re-accelerates or growth stays so robust that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive. Currently, both scenarios seem unlikely. However, even if rate cuts were to slow, stronger-than-expected growth should support earnings and equity markets. The Fed outlook from H2 2025 is less clear in case of a clean sweep, if fiscal spending accelerates, but we do not want to anticipate the election result. We continue to expect cuts of 25bps at all of the next six meetings. We remain overweight on US equities and like quality credit
  • Question 2: Do we remain optimistic about the UK, ahead of the budget? The upcoming budget remains uncertain with announcements expected around everything: spending, tax and borrowing and change to the fiscal rules. The recent investment summit raised confidence, as it claimed GPB63 billion in investments from public money and commitments from the private sector. PMIs and GDP growth have also remained relatively strong, and we expect this to continue for the remainder of the year. Economic momentum, investor and consumer confidence remain better in the UK than in the rest of Europe and hence we maintain our mild overweight positioning on the UK equities and like GBP IG credit
  • Question 3: How do we explain European equity market performance despite the weak data? After the cyclical pickup in H1, the data in Europe have been weak. But equities have held their own owing to both macro and micro-market aspects. Firstly, the global economic cycle has remained resilient, helping large European companies with elevated international revenue exposure. Secondly, some large sectors like finance and healthcare have performed well, adding to the overall market performance. Also, rate-sensitive sectors like telecoms, real estate and utilities should find support from rate cuts by the ECB and the BoE going ahead. But downside risks exist for the European outlook and hence we maintain a neutral view on the wider Eurozone with a mild overweight preference for Spanish and the UK equities with a large cap bias
  • Question 4: What size of fiscal stimulus in China can jumpstart a sustainable rally in the equity market there? Markets have been eagerly waiting for a “magic number” for the fiscal stimulus size, with street projections ranging from RMB2trn (1.6 per cent of GDP) to RMB10 trillion (8 per cent of GDP). While full official details are yet to come, the latest stimulus plans are clearly focused on debt restructuring. Although we saw a liquidity-driven rally recently, investors have moved back to the wait-and-see approach, due to less clarity on the package size. Amid this mixed investor reaction and continued market volatility, we remain neutral on Chinese and Hong Kong equities and focus on quality Chinese SOEs, blue chip internet leaders, and select consumer brands. In Hong Kong, we look for undervalued, high dividend stocks in the insurance, telecom, and utilities sectors, and select property developers with strong balance sheets
  • Question 5: With the S&P 500 hitting new highs, how are we positioning amid the Q3 earnings season and ahead of the US elections? We do not think it is wise to bet on any particular US election outcome as the result is close. Instead, we take guidance from the fundamentals: better-than-expected economic and earnings growth, coupled with continued Fed rate cuts, should support US equities. Following the elections, volatility tends to fall and historically, the post-election clarity boosts US stocks regardless of who is in the White House. US stocks continue to be boosted by structural trends such as the US strength in innovation and re-onshoring. We maintain our overweight on US stocks and like IT, communications, industrials, financials and healthcare sectors
  • Question 6: Can the current positive sentiment around India and Japan shift to China? Indian, Taiwanese, and Malaysian equity markets would be most vulnerable to outflows if investors moved more into mainland China’s stock market. The impact on India was evident from the funds’ outflows after the recent Chinese rally. But this should be temporary, as India still enjoys the structural tailwinds for equity performance, and we retain our bullish positioning there. Japan’s growth dynamics and risk profile meanwhile are very different from China’s, so we don’t think flows will be redirected. The recent volatility in Japanese equities was due to JPY and US rate moves, not Chinese policies. We still like Japanese equities due to ongoing reflation, accommodative BoJ policy settings and progressing corporate governance reforms

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